Ian Hartitz is joined by Matthew Coller of Purple Insider, author of "Football Is a Numbers Game", to work through the fantasy questions that actually decide your draft in Minnesota.
Ian Hartitz is joined by Matthew Coller of Purple Insider, author of "Football Is a Numbers Game", to work through the fantasy questions that actually decide your draft in Minnesota.
Matthew was at every single practice of the quarterback competition and charted every pass, so this is what he saw with his own eyes rather than what the box score says.
Some of what came out of it:
Kyler Murray is QB1, and it was a real competition that was not close. The total rep count over about nine hard practices came out 50/50, which is not what a locked-in starter's camp looks like, but Murray played par golf across those nine holes and J.J. McCarthy was five over. Murray moves through his progressions faster and the accuracy gap is the thing that decided it.
On Justin Jefferson: the camp looks much more like 2022 through 2024 than last season. Ian's numbers have Murray at a 9% better catchable ball rate to receivers than what Jefferson dealt with last year, over the first five weeks with screens removed. And the two plays Matthew keeps coming back to are a fourth-down heave that he calls a bad throw, which Jefferson goes and wins anyway, and a deep corner where the ball was gone before Jefferson had even broken.
On the middle of the field: there are always going to be realities to Murray's size. But when he sees it and throws on time he was something like 30 for 41 in the intermediate middle in 2024. It just was not a high percentage of his passes, and Kevin O'Connell's job is building the throwing lanes for it.
Jordan Addison is in a prove-it year with an extension in front of him, off a season with more drops than he has ever had. Jauan Jennings might be the second best receiver Murray has ever played with, and he is the WR3 here.
Plus the backfield, where Matthew clears up a quote of his that went around the fantasy world in a form he did not say, the rookie Demond Claiborne, and a bold call to finish.
Follow Matthew at @MatthewColler, read him at Purple Insider, and pick up "Football Is a Numbers Game".
Rankings, articles and the Draft Assistant are all at RotoWire. Use code IAN20 for 20% off any subscription: https://www.rotowire.com/?ref=owmwyje
Timestamps:
0:00 Talking Vikings with Matthew Coller
1:22 Was it ever really a quarterback competition?
5:19 How Matthew actually scored it
10:54 Is the Kyler and Jettas connection back?
14:17 Can Kyler work the middle of the field?
17:51 Jordan Addison's prove-it year
21:21 Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson and the target math
27:05 The Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones committee
30:36 What to make of Demond Claiborne
33:29 Matthew's bold call
35:56 Wrapping up