an Hartitz ranks 48 running backs for Week 1, sorts them into seven tiers, and stops at the end of every tier for a bigger question about the position. QB, RB, WR and TE ranks and tiers, every week.
Ian Hartitz ranks 48 running backs for Week 1, sorts them into seven tiers, and stops at the end of every tier for a bigger question about the position. QB, RB, WR and TE ranks and tiers, every week.
TIER 1: THE BIG THREE
Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey.
Key question: what does Vegas say about the scoring upside of these offenses? Implied team totals are the reason people were happy to take Gibbs over Bijan at 1.01. Lions 28.3, second on the slate. Falcons 19.3, 28th. 49ers 22.5. Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight career games David Montgomery missed or played under 25% of snaps.
TIER 2: NO-DOUBT RB1s
Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, De'Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor.
Key question: which coaching staffs are most willing to leave one back on the field for the whole game? That is the case for Taylor and especially Achane surviving shaky offensive environments. Both staffs simply left them out there last season. Barkley has posted 26-146-2, 29-150-2, 15-118-3 and 21-132-1 rushing lines in four games against Washington since joining the Eagles.
TIER 3: LEAD BACKS WITH SMASHABLE MATCHUPS
Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall.
Key question: what are the biggest injury situations to monitor at RB? Sixteen of them, from Jeanty's ankle to Kamara's knee. The one that matters most here is Kyle Monangai's knee, which is what puts Swift in a must-start RB1 role against a Panthers defense that ranked 27th in EPA allowed per rush.
TIER 4: YOU'RE STARTING THEM, BUT THERE'S A QUESTION
Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams, Ashton Jeanty, David Montgomery, Bucky Irving, Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jadarian Price, Quinshon Judkins.
Key question: which backs project extra nicely for receptions against zone-heavy defenses? Backs eat into wide receiver target share against zone, and last season's three most zone-heavy defenses all kept their coordinators: Panthers versus Swift, Seahawks versus Stevenson, Rams versus McCaffrey. Ian likes the over on Stevenson 2.5 and McCaffrey 4.5.
TIER 5: LEAD RUNNING BACKS, PROBABLY
MarShawn Lloyd, Bhayshul Tuten, Rico Dowdle, Jaylen Warren, J.K. Dobbins, Tony Pollard.
Key question: what do RotoWire Projections say about these muddled backfields? Green Bay and Tennessee have clear leaders, Jacksonville tips to Tuten, and Pittsburgh and Denver split close to even. In a tight start/sit call between one of these backs and a WR2 or WR3, Ian is taking the pass catcher.
TIER 6: FLEX OPTIONS
Blake Corum, Jordan Mason, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, TreVeyon Henderson, Chuba Hubbard, Jonathon Brooks, Rachaad White, Kenneth Gainwell, RJ Harvey, Chris Rodriguez, Aaron Jones.
Key question: who has the best and worst matchups in combined RB yards before contact per carry? Best of the week: Rams, Bears and Cowboys. Worst: Browns, Packers and Raiders. It lines up with RotoWire's preseason offensive line ranks.
TIER 7: HANDCUFFS AND DART THROWS
Keaton Mitchell, Mike Washington, Woody Marks, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Allgeier, Ray Davis, Tank Bigsby.
Key question: who are the top five under-rostered handcuffs to stash? All five are available in over 70% of leagues. Tank Bigsby 35% rostered on Yahoo and 19% on ESPN, Brian Robinson 26% and 27%, Kaelon Black 19% and 10%, Ray Davis 16% and 10%, Malik Davis 4% and 3%. Use the bench spot on a back who is one injury from the top of the waiver wire, not on a second kicker.
Full rankings, tiers, the Injury Report and the Draft Assistant are all in the draft kit, linked at the top of this description. Promo code IAN35 takes 35% off.
Timestamps:
0:00 The plan and the seven questions
0:23 Tier 1: The big three
1:17 Key question: what Vegas says about the scoring upside
2:09 Tier 2: No-doubt RB1s
4:46 Key question: which staffs leave one back on the field
5:35 Tier 3: Lead backs with smashable matchups
7:25 Key question: the biggest injury situations to monitor
8:18 Tier 4: You're starting them, but there's a question
11:47 Key question: which backs eat receptions against zone
14:02 Tier 5: Lead running backs, probably
15:51 Key question: what the projections say about the muddled backfields
16:53 Tier 6: FLEX options
20:36 Key question: best and worst matchups in yards before contact
22:00 Tier 7: Handcuffs and dart throws
23:31 Key question: five under-rostered handcuffs to stash
24:19 Wrapping up