Through three weeks, Bryce Young and Tyler Shough are top-four fantasy QBs while Drake Maye and Justin Herbert don't crack the top 25. Ian Hartitz ranks his top 32 quarterbacks for Week 4, sorts them into five tiers, and stops after every tier for a bigger question about the position, from bye-week streamers to which QBs are playing scared.
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Through three weeks, Bryce Young and Tyler Shough are top-four fantasy QBs while Drake Maye and Justin Herbert don't crack the top 25. Ian Hartitz ranks his top 32 quarterbacks for Week 4, sorts them into five tiers, and stops after every tier for a bigger question about the position, from bye-week streamers to which QBs are playing scared.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts.
Key question: who are the best lower-owned QBs to target with the upcoming bye weeks? For Week 5 (Chiefs bye): Jacoby Brissett, then Sam Darnold, then Geno Smith. For Week 6 (Bengals, Lions): Marcus Mariota, then Kirk Cousins, then Michael Penix. For Week 7 (Bills, Jaguars): Geno Smith and C.J. Stroud. And Colts-Commanders is in London, so set those lineups before 9:30am ET on Sunday.
TIER 2: ROCK SOLID QB1S
Tyler Shough, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love.
Key question: what offenses are expected to have the most trouble controlling the line of scrimmage this week? Using combined matchup pressure rates, Bryce Young, Justin Herbert, Malik Willis, Drake Maye, Deshaun Watson and Jalen Hurts look to be under a LOT of pressure, while Jacoby Brissett, Michael Penix and Kyler Murray should see relatively clean pockets.
TIER 3: WE'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE
Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins.
Key question: who has the best and worst supporting casts through three weeks? Using the average rank in PFF team grades for rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking, the top five are the 49ers, Lions, Chiefs, Ravens and Rams. The bottom five are the Giants, Chargers, Commanders, Dolphins and, dead last, the Packers.
TIER 4: THERE'S AT LEAST ONE CONCERN
Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Michael Penix, Deshaun Watson, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Daniel Jones, Malik Willis.
Key question: who have been the best and worst real-life QBs through three weeks? Using EPA per play and completion percentage over expected from rbsdm.com: Brock Purdy for MVP, Drew Lock up top, Geno Smith back to being the CPOE king, and a rough start for Jameis Winston, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert.
TIER 5: I'M GOOD, THANKS
Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Case Keenum, Cam Ward, Jalon Daniels.
Key question: what QBs are playing scared this season? Ranking scramble rate, average target depth, throws short of the sticks and check-down rate, the five most scared QBs are Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones.
Thanks to Fantasy Genius for sponsoring this episode. Connect your league for its full history, who has owned every player, and human-written league recaps. Go to https://fantasygenius.io and use code ROTOWIRE for 20% off your first year.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:27 Tier 1: The big six
7:25 Key question: lower-owned QBs for the bye weeks
9:39 Tier 2: Rock solid QB1s
13:45 Key question: who will struggle to control the line of scrimmage
14:25 Tier 3: We're saying there's a chance
22:28 Key question: the best and worst supporting casts
24:27 Fantasy Genius
26:19 Tier 4: There's at least one concern
32:37 Key question: the best and worst real-life QBs
33:39 Tier 5: I'm good, thanks
35:55 Key question: which QBs are playing scared
37:51 Wrapping up
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