It is August, which means it is time to talk ourselves out of every player we are about to draft.
It is August, which means it is time to talk ourselves out of every player we are about to draft. Ian Hartitz goes one by one through all 12 first round picks, builds the glass half empty case against each of them, and then gives an honest 1 to 10 rating on how much that risk actually scares him. Some of these are easy to dismiss. Ja'Marr Chase only breaks if Joe Burrow gets hurt again, and every receiver has that problem. Others are real. The bottom of the round is where it gets ugly, because Justin Jefferson and De'Von Achane are both tied to offenses nobody wants to bet on, and there are only 14 instances of a running back posting top-12 PPR numbers on a bottom-10 scoring offense over the entire last decade.
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Timestamps:
0:00 The premise: talking ourselves out of the first round
0:39 1.01 Jahmyr Gibbs (1/10)
3:45 1.02 Bijan Robinson (2/10)
6:56 1.03 Ja'Marr Chase (1/10)
8:25 1.04 Puka Nacua (2/10)
12:27 1.05 Christian McCaffrey (4/10)
16:15 1.06 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3/10)
19:29 1.07 Jonathan Taylor (6/10)
25:45 1.08 Amon-Ra St. Brown (3/10)
28:02 1.09 CeeDee Lamb (5/10)
30:53 1.10 Justin Jefferson (7/10)
35:56 1.11 James Cook (4/10)
38:38 1.12 De'Von Achane (8/10)
41:33 Every concern level, recapped
It's a great day to be great